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So how does this end?


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#1 rileys-mum

Posted 28 March 2020 - 06:38 PM

So I understand that need to flatten the curve.
I understand the race is on for a vaccine and treatment.

But, how does this end?
When does life return to normal?
Is it after a certain % is infected and recovered?
The virus will continue to exist so as we remove social distancing will it just not return?

#2 ~LemonMyrtle~

Posted 28 March 2020 - 06:48 PM

It ends when there is enough immunity in the community to enable hospitals to cope with the virus ongoing, like they do with the flu. That will either be after a large percentage of us have caught it and recovered, or after a vaccine has been distributed far and wide.

Either way it’s a long way off. A long long way.

#3 No Drama Please

Posted 28 March 2020 - 06:49 PM

My guess is eventually there’ll be enough people who’ve been mildly affected to build up herd immunity and then eventually a vaccine will become part of the normal flu vax.

This is my hope for the virus part. Then we’ll need to rebuild everything we lost in the meantime. Life will return to normal at some point. It will be tough and stressful and confusing but it will be normal again. It might take longer than we want but it definitely will happen.

#4 Lucrezia Bauble

Posted 28 March 2020 - 06:51 PM

the virus will run its course. sadly more people will die. many more will develop immunity. but lives, families, businesses will be forever destroyed by the economic cost and - yes, some will recover. many won’t - their lives will be irreparably damaged. and society  will be the poorer for it.

Edited by Lucrezia Bauble, 28 March 2020 - 06:53 PM.


#5 Freddie'sMum

Posted 28 March 2020 - 06:52 PM

In my layperson, unscientific opinion - the following will happen:

1. Most of the population will be exposed to the virus.

2. Some of the population will die from the virus.

3. Hopefully - both herd immunity and a vaccine will be developed and distributed to all people.

4. All governments will realise that running down health services (and treating them like a for-profit business is stupid and short sighted).

5. I really truly feel that what was our "normal" life - post virus - will change (and I hope) for the better.  We can do WFH and the world doesn't stop.  I hope all governments will implement a universal wage - an income that we all receive to meet our basic needs, shelter, food, necessities of life.

6. (I don't want to say this but) I think a war with China is on the horizon unless they close their wet markets - forever - and dismantle their communist government.  Which is not going to happen in my lifetime.

#6 #YKG

Posted 28 March 2020 - 06:54 PM

A vaccine won’t be available for 12-18 months after it’s been proved effective, so that’s a fair way off.

I honestly can’t see the world returning to “normal” this year. If people don’t start behaving it’ll take longer.

Eventually it will slow, they’ll slowly lift restrictions, a bit of a bump in infections but nothing dramatic, then ease back off again. The info and data I’m seeing is it’s not expected to be a forever issue, it’s expected to go the way of swine flu and not the seasonal flu.

Edited by #YKG, 28 March 2020 - 06:56 PM.


#7 Romeo Void

Posted 28 March 2020 - 06:54 PM

To get herd immunity we need more than 60% to be infected.  We have a population of 25 million and we've had 4,000.  At this rate it will take years.  
Vaccine?  That's 12-18 months off.
We can't sustain this level of self isolation, teenagers, young adults...they'll buckle. I don't blame them, it is what it is.  Our leaders should know better than to expect that they would be able to keep this up indefinitely. I bet even now people are hooking on Tinder or having sneaky back yard BBQs.

So my take on it is this isn't going to work.

#8 Romeo Void

Posted 28 March 2020 - 06:58 PM

The second we relax restrictions that curve will kick off again. As long as there's infections out in the population we can't relax our measures.  I don't see any option other than full lockdown and wiping the virus out all together. But that's just my take on it...

#9 ~LemonMyrtle~

Posted 28 March 2020 - 07:00 PM

View PostNo Drama Please, on 28 March 2020 - 06:49 PM, said:

My guess is eventually there’ll be enough people who’ve been mildly affected to build up herd immunity and then eventually a vaccine will become part of the normal flu vax.

This is my hope for the virus part. Then we’ll need to rebuild everything we lost in the meantime. Life will return to normal at some point. It will be tough and stressful and confusing but it will be normal again. It might take longer than we want but it definitely will happen.

Ah yes, the economic recovery will also be long and probably will take years to fully recover. I feel like we still haven’t fully recovered from the GFC, and this will be much worse.

#10 Lucrezia Bauble

Posted 28 March 2020 - 07:00 PM

View PostRomeo Void, on 28 March 2020 - 06:54 PM, said:

To get herd immunity we need more than 60% to be infected.  We have a population of 25 million and we've had 4,000.  At this rate it will take years.  
Vaccine?  That's 12-18 months off.
We can't sustain this level of self isolation, teenagers, young adults...they'll buckle. I don't blame them, it is what it is.  Our leaders should know better than to expect that they would be able to keep this up indefinitely. I bet even now people are hooking on Tinder or having sneaky back yard BBQs.

So my take on it is this isn't going to work.

yes, i have a hunch you might be right.

people casually saying “oh you know - we do this for 6 months” ...yeh. people do jail terms for 6 months. i know people will jump down my throat...and it is what it is...if i’m told “stay inside for 6 months” then you know, i have  to toughen up princess. but people stuck to a curfew in war because freakin bombs rained down on them if they didn’t. maybe if people really were seeing cases of people dropping dead in the street - then, YK, that’s one hell of an incentive. i’m not saying i want to see that. i emphatically do not. but many people just can’t see a case for this. and their livelihoods are being destroyed in the meantime. not a great environment for effective change management.


#11 BadCat

Posted 28 March 2020 - 07:02 PM

.

Edited by BadCat, 11 May 2020 - 09:16 PM.


#12 Romeo Void

Posted 28 March 2020 - 07:04 PM

I wish the Government had more women advising them, we could tell them this isn't going to work.  How the hell are we going to keep kids locked up like this for potentially a year?

#13 kadoodle

Posted 28 March 2020 - 07:07 PM

Not with a bang, but with a whimper.

#14 MadMarchMasterchef

Posted 28 March 2020 - 07:10 PM

I have to admit, Im terrified about 'whats next' when we finally get on top of this.  Flu viruses can mutate.  I don't think life will ever be the same again.  But hopefully we will make advances in medicine and medical knowledge.  They have certainly done this since the Spanish Flu days.

#15 MadMarchMasterchef

Posted 28 March 2020 - 07:11 PM

View PostFreddie, on 28 March 2020 - 06:52 PM, said:


6. (I don't want to say this but) I think a war with China is on the horizon unless they close their wet markets - forever - and dismantle their communist government.  Which is not going to happen in my lifetime.

Im scared of this too.

China also isn't the only country that has horrific wet markets.

#16 rowd

Posted 28 March 2020 - 07:16 PM

One theory is to eliminate the virus through lockdown measures, then keep the borders shut until there is a treatment/vaccine. I think this is a slim possibility in NZ due to lockdown starting early, but I really don't know if it's feasible based on how long it would need to be done for.

Otherwise, ride it out with cycles of lockdown and relaxing, which still leads to large numbers being infected but allows the hospital system to cope and hopefully limit deaths. Again, until there is a treatment/vaccine, or herd immunity.

The idea of antibody testing is interesting too - perhaps if/when that becomes available (and if/when we know with more certainty that reinfection is unlikely), then large numbers of people may be able to cease lockdown and regain some sort of economic activity, keep hospitals running, not have to isolate after contact, etc.

#17 zande

Posted 28 March 2020 - 07:17 PM

I work with an epidemiologist and he said this virus will never disappear- it’ll be here now just like colds, flus, even SARS is still around. So the question is how long is a lockdown supposed to last? The world stopping til we have a vaccine or the virus is gone is not feasible or realistic.

#18 CCABW

Posted 28 March 2020 - 07:17 PM

Who knows. But it will end. Every other major infection has eventually stopped. We will get through this.

#19 Ozquoll

Posted 28 March 2020 - 07:18 PM

View PostRomeo Void, on 28 March 2020 - 06:54 PM, said:

We can't sustain this level of self isolation, teenagers, young adults...they'll buckle. I don't blame them, it is what it is.  Our leaders should know better than to expect that they would be able to keep this up indefinitely. I bet even now people are hooking on Tinder or having sneaky back yard BBQs.

So my take on it is this isn't going to work.
Yup. And young kids need to hang around with other kids, get a break from their parents by going to school {and vice versa 😉}, play sports, etc. Old people, who we are trying to protect from this virus, might think that 18 months of loneliness in self-isolation is not a price worth paying. The economy...well, we aren't going to have much of one in eighteen months if we have to spend that entire time trapped in our houses. Every week that ticks by in lockdown will mean more businesses failed and more people on the dole queue. It has been possible for governments to demonise and punish welfare recipients up till now, but when we have a million or more extra newly unemployed welfare recipients the government will not be able to pretend that they are all on the dole due to their personal shortcomings. Almost everyone will soon know someone who is on Centrelink benefits because the business they used to work for was unable to continue due to the coronavirus lockdown. As time goes by there will be increased pressure from the public to do something, anything, to kickstart the economy and get people in to jobs once more.


Having said all that - I don't think we will, or should, just let the virus rip. Some combination of a 2-6 week lockdown now {with a UBI and other measures to keep as many individuals and businesses afloat as possible}, the South Korean approach of mass-testing and intensive contact tracing, increases in ICUs and ventilators in hospitals, and probably treatments with existing drugs - there are proper large-scale trials being conducted in multiple countries right now, so approval of treatment protocols may not be too distant. And of course, in 12-18 months we are very likely to have a vaccine.

#20 BadCat

Posted 28 March 2020 - 07:21 PM

.

Edited by BadCat, 11 May 2020 - 09:15 PM.


#21 zande

Posted 28 March 2020 - 07:21 PM

Also how is herd immunity going to work if we aren’t getting it because we’re stuck inside?  I like how Singapore have done it - shut borders early, lots of testing & isolating those with the virus, not everyone.  Schools are open but students’ temperatures are checked.  We should have shut out flights in from China at least & those damn cruises much earlier.

Edited by zande, 28 March 2020 - 07:26 PM.


#22 kimasa

Posted 28 March 2020 - 07:22 PM

My completely uninformed non-scientific theory is:

We slowly start doing things again, we won't last more than a couple of months this way.
It never really goes away, but it's not at worldwide outbreak level.
We learn nothing and go back to the way everything was before.

#23 kim27

Posted 28 March 2020 - 07:23 PM



The way I look at this is the government needs to be ramping up our ability to treat the seriously ill and test and eventually they’ll have to lift the restrictions, at least for a while otherwise we risk damage to the economy that mean many may never work again. It will be a hard thing to do because most of us will get the virus and people will die but it must be done.

You can’t just say ‘it’s a choice between the economy and lives’ because recessions and depressions cost lives as well.

People say this is ‘unprecedented’ but really it’s not. Just not in living memory for most of us. There have been pandemics and epidemics throughout history well before medical treatment was available and humans bounced back

#24 ~LemonMyrtle~

Posted 28 March 2020 - 07:25 PM

View Postzande, on 28 March 2020 - 07:21 PM, said:

Also how is herd immunity going to work if we aren’t getting it because we’re stuck inside?

It will go in cycles perhaps. Not a flattened curve, but a wave that goes up and down as restrictions are loosened and then tightened again. Until we have almost all caught it, or the vaccine appears.
Keep an eye on Wuhan. They are going to get wave 2 soon, once people leave their houses again.

#25 petal71

Posted 28 March 2020 - 07:27 PM

I agree about the war with China part (not that I want one either) but there have been escalating tensions even before COVID - expansionism in the S China Sea, Belt and Road initiative, human rights abuses of the Uigurs etc. The Q is, if the US is sufficiently brought to its knees by this then who is going to take China on?




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